(E algumas boas alternativas à participação de Portugal no Euro).
18.2.12
Money Bawl: Ron Paul’s ignorant cry (National Review)
Um artigo interessante de Ramesh Ponnuru na National Review. Um razoável e curto primer sobre política monetária.
(E algumas boas alternativas à participação de Portugal no Euro).
(E algumas boas alternativas à participação de Portugal no Euro).
Empresas do Estado somam prejuízos de 1,5 mil milhões
"Resultados negativos afundaram 38,5%. Exigência do Governo para conter custos não foi respeitada e o endividamento voltou a disparar...
Também as exigências de controlo dos custos operacionais foram desrespeitadas. As empresas do Estado estavam obrigadas a cortar em 15% as despesas em 2011, mas os dados conhecidos ontem mostram que, em vez de pouparem, aumentaram os gastos em 1,9%. No total, os custos com fornecimentos externos, pessoal e mercadorias superaram 3,7 mil milhões de euros, incluindo os resultados da Parpública e da Estradas de Portugal...
Face aos resultados de 2011, que se foram agravando ao longo de cada trimestre, a exigência inscrita no Memorando de Entendimento assinado com a troika está muito longe de ser satisfeita..."
17.2.12
Pedro: o pessoal não está a emigrar ...
Desemprego saltou para 14%:
"A taxa de desemprego no quarto trimestre de 2011 saltou para 14%, um valor superior em 1,6 pontos percentuais ao do trimestre anterior e que fica acima das previsões dos economistas.
O universo da população desempregada ascende agora a 771 mil, o que representa um acréscimo trimestral de 11,8% (mais 81,4 mil pessoas)."
Afinal há dinheiro e nem todos estão condenados a empobrecer
Custo das PPP rodoviárias fica 30% acima do previsto:
"Os encargos líquidos para o Estado com as parcerias público-privadas (PPP) rodoviárias ultrapassaram, no final do ano passado, os 1.520 milhões de euros, mais 30% – ou 355 milhões – do que os 1.165 milhões previstos para 2011."Há dinheiro. Não há é dinheiro para tudo. No momento de decidir quem recebe e quem deixa de receber, o governo põe a descoberto as suas preferências ideológicas e os seus interesses.
16.2.12
POPE WARNS AGAINST THE POWER OF FINANCE AND OF THE MEDIA
"Yesterday afternoon the Holy Father visited the Major Seminary of Rome for the occasion of the feast of its patroness, Our Lady of Trust...
... The Pope then went on to refer to the force of evil which, in today's world, also emerges "in two great powers which are good and useful in themselves but easily open to abuse: the power of finance and the power of the media. Both are necessary, both are useful, but so subject to misuse that they often go against their true goals".
Today "we see how the world of finance can dominate mankind. Possession and appearance dominate and enslave the world. ... Finance is no longer a tool to promote well being and to support the life of man, but a force that oppresses him, one which almost has to be worshipped". The Pontiff called on his audience not to conform to this power. "Be non conformists. What counts is not possession but existence", he said. Christians must not bow to this power, but use it as "as a means, with the freedom of the children of God".
Turning then to consider the question of public opinion, Benedict XVI highlighted how "we have a great need of information, knowledge about the truth of the world; but there is a power of appearance which in the end counts even more than reality itself". Appearance "overlies the truth and becomes more important. Man no longer pursues the truth but wants above all to appear". Here too "there is a Christian non conformism. ... We want not appearance but truth, and this will give us true freedom".
"Christian non conformism redeems us and restores us to truth. Let us pray to the Lord that He may help us to be free in this non conformism, which is not against the world but is authentic love for the world".
... The Pope then went on to refer to the force of evil which, in today's world, also emerges "in two great powers which are good and useful in themselves but easily open to abuse: the power of finance and the power of the media. Both are necessary, both are useful, but so subject to misuse that they often go against their true goals".
Today "we see how the world of finance can dominate mankind. Possession and appearance dominate and enslave the world. ... Finance is no longer a tool to promote well being and to support the life of man, but a force that oppresses him, one which almost has to be worshipped". The Pontiff called on his audience not to conform to this power. "Be non conformists. What counts is not possession but existence", he said. Christians must not bow to this power, but use it as "as a means, with the freedom of the children of God".
Turning then to consider the question of public opinion, Benedict XVI highlighted how "we have a great need of information, knowledge about the truth of the world; but there is a power of appearance which in the end counts even more than reality itself". Appearance "overlies the truth and becomes more important. Man no longer pursues the truth but wants above all to appear". Here too "there is a Christian non conformism. ... We want not appearance but truth, and this will give us true freedom".
"Christian non conformism redeems us and restores us to truth. Let us pray to the Lord that He may help us to be free in this non conformism, which is not against the world but is authentic love for the world".
IMF Working Paper: Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession
- ABSTRACT: Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. ...
- Excerto das conclusões: "It appears that uncertainty is here to stay—at least for a while. The implication is that saving rates will continue to be maintained, or even raised during spikes in uncertainty. This complicates the process of economic recovery. Higher uncertainty and lower growth can become a “bad” equilibrium. The challenge for policymakers is that as they go about their task of renewing global growth, they must also pay particular attention to the consistency of their statements, especially to establish the credibility of their actions. As of this writing, the signs in this regard are not propitious.
AS "reformas" nas áreas laboral, da saúde, da segurança social, da educação e o próprio "discurso" do governo reforçam a insegurança e contribuem para a manutenção do "bad equilibrium" de que fala este paper: elevada incerteza, reduzido consumo, baixo crescimento.
Infelizmente, e como também refere este paper do FMI, não parece que o governo esteja a perceber o que está a acontecer. 2012 ?
[ESTE TEXTO FOI ESCRITO AO ABRIGO DO NOVO DESACORDO ORTOGRÁFICO]
15.2.12
What Went Wrong in Portugal? (The New York Times)
"Europe is on the wrong path because its prescription for the sovereign debt crisis, so-called expansionary fiscal consolidation, is a failed economic paradigm. The thinking has been that sacking government workers and cutting government spending would eliminate the budget deficit in countries like Greece and Portugal and, therefore, restore market confidence in their sovereign debt. The reality has turned out to be quite a bit different. Instead of reduced debt loads, we are witnessing higher government debt burdens as the reduced economic output from cutting government is met with cuts in the private sector. If Europe continues on this path, the euro zone will break apart entirely with unpredictable political and economic repercussions.
In Portugal, the government has adopted steep austerity measures as a condition of its aid package. However, the country's economy will now shrink because European policy makers fail to understand the dynamics of debt deflation. What they miss is that the Portuguese private sector is highly indebted. When the economy contracts, indebted individuals and companies in an indebted private sector have an overwhelming incentive to save to reduce debt burdens and prevent default and bankruptcy. This means that the private sector will always attempt to increase its net savings position irrespective of the government balance. When government then attempts to move to a net savings position as well by cutting spending and increasing taxes, it is met with cuts in the private sector which still wants to net save and pay down debt. Irresistible force meet immovable object!
The result, then, of government cuts or tax increases when the private sector is indebted and the economy is stalled is debt deflation, as more and more parties cut back, threatened by insolvency due to the decreased economic output. Europe must understand that Greece is not a special case. Rather it is the leading edge of a debt deflation, which risks claiming Portugal as its next victim. Put bluntly, Portugal is the next Greece.
To their credit, the ratings agencies and the International Monetary Fund have all voiced disquiet with this policy response in Europe. In fact, in each of the last rounds of sovereign credit ratings downgrades, Standard & Poor's and Moody's wrote that they had downgraded several countries in Europe in part because the austerity-centered approach was making matters worse. The ratings agencies indicated that Europe must turn toward more pro-growth policies if it is to have any hope.
The bottom line is this: Europe is fixated on the wrong problem, budget deficits. The bigger problem in most of Europe is private indebtedness and financial sector leverage. If Europe wants to fix its problems, it must address this indebtedness, and that requires a lot more than endless rounds of fiscal austerity and budget cutting."
In Portugal, the government has adopted steep austerity measures as a condition of its aid package. However, the country's economy will now shrink because European policy makers fail to understand the dynamics of debt deflation. What they miss is that the Portuguese private sector is highly indebted. When the economy contracts, indebted individuals and companies in an indebted private sector have an overwhelming incentive to save to reduce debt burdens and prevent default and bankruptcy. This means that the private sector will always attempt to increase its net savings position irrespective of the government balance. When government then attempts to move to a net savings position as well by cutting spending and increasing taxes, it is met with cuts in the private sector which still wants to net save and pay down debt. Irresistible force meet immovable object!
The result, then, of government cuts or tax increases when the private sector is indebted and the economy is stalled is debt deflation, as more and more parties cut back, threatened by insolvency due to the decreased economic output. Europe must understand that Greece is not a special case. Rather it is the leading edge of a debt deflation, which risks claiming Portugal as its next victim. Put bluntly, Portugal is the next Greece.
To their credit, the ratings agencies and the International Monetary Fund have all voiced disquiet with this policy response in Europe. In fact, in each of the last rounds of sovereign credit ratings downgrades, Standard & Poor's and Moody's wrote that they had downgraded several countries in Europe in part because the austerity-centered approach was making matters worse. The ratings agencies indicated that Europe must turn toward more pro-growth policies if it is to have any hope.
The bottom line is this: Europe is fixated on the wrong problem, budget deficits. The bigger problem in most of Europe is private indebtedness and financial sector leverage. If Europe wants to fix its problems, it must address this indebtedness, and that requires a lot more than endless rounds of fiscal austerity and budget cutting."
13.2.12
ECB Working Paper: Investor inattention during FIFA world cup matches
"At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, many soccer matches were played during stock market trading hours, providing us with a natural experiment to analyze fluctuations in investor attention. Using minute‐by‐minute trading data for fifteen international stock exchanges, we present three key findings. First, when the national team was playing, the number of trades dropped by 45%, while volumes were 55% lower. Second, market activity was influenced by match events. For instance, a goal caused an additional drop in trading activity by 5%. The magnitude of this reduction resembles what is observed during lunchtime, and as such might not be indicative for shifts in attention. However, our third finding is that the comovement between national and global stock market returns decreased by over 20% during World Cup matches, whereas no comparable decoupling can be found during lunchtime. We conclude that stock markets were following developments on the soccer pitch rather than in the trading pit, leading to a changed price formation process."São estes "os mercados" que fazem tremer os governos deste mundo.
São estes os investidores normalmente apresentados como paradigma de agentes racionais.
É para os homens das salas de mercados poderem continuar a assistir confortavelmente ao futebeol durante as horas de serviço que nós não vamos ter direito às tradicionais tolerância de ponto.
E, por último, Portugal paga centenas de milhões de euros aos membros da troika, nomeadamente ao BCE, para que estas entidades possam continuar a financiar este tipo de "investigações científicas" ...
10.2.12
8.2.12
Más de mil niños católicos de Timor Oriental secuestrados e islamizados a la fuerza en Indonesia
"Más de mil niños católicos de Timor Oriental permanecen secuestrados e islamizados a la fuerza en Indonesia
Un millar de niños católicos de Timor Oriental, están detenidos por la fuerza en Indonesia, tras ser arrebatados a sus familias hace más de diez años para ser educados en colegios islámicos y nacionalizados. La mayoría se encuentra en escuelas y centro de acogida, en manos de «educadores» musulmanes que se niegan a devolverlos a sus familias."
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