IMF Working Paper: Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession

• ABSTRACT: Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. ...
  
  
• Excerto das conclusões: "It appears that uncertainty is here to stay—at least for a while. The implication is that saving rates will continue to be maintained, or even raised during spikes in uncertainty. This complicates the process of economic recovery. Higher uncertainty and lower growth can become a “bad” equilibrium. The challenge for policymakers is that as they go about their task of renewing global growth, they must also pay particular attention to the consistency of their statements, especially to establish the credibility of their actions. As of this writing, the signs in this regard are not propitious.

Este paper reforça o argumento do artigo do NYT que foi aqui ontem publicado.

AS "reformas" nas áreas laboral, da saúde, da segurança social, da educação e o próprio "discurso" do governo reforçam a insegurança e contribuem para a manutenção do "bad equilibrium" de que fala este paper: elevada incerteza, reduzido consumo, baixo crescimento.

Infelizmente, e como também refere este paper do FMI, não parece que o governo esteja a perceber o que está a acontecer. 2012 ? LCOL (Crying Out Loud).

[ESTE TEXTO FOI ESCRITO AO ABRIGO DO NOVO DESACORDO ORTOGRÁFICO]